Who deserves to win the Cy Young Awards this year?
Who deserves to win the Cy Young Awards this year?
Caption: Daniel Shirey//Getty Images
Wow, have you heard the latest odds for the American and National League Cy Young winners? The bookies seem to think it’s a done deal – the Yankees’ Gerrit Cole and the Padres’ Blake Snell are the hot favorites. And by hot favorites, I mean you have to bet thousands of dollars to win a measly $100. Seems like a convincing prediction, right?
But hold on a second, my fellow beauty and fashion enthusiasts, because something big is happening in baseball, something that has left me absolutely flabbergasted. I’m starting to question my very understanding of the value of starting pitchers. And if you stick with me, you’ll see why.
Let’s take a look at Snell and Cole, the dynamic duo dominating the pitch. Snell, bless his heart, has never completed a game in his entire career. He was even content to be pulled out of a seven-inning no-hitter after throwing 104 pitches. According to Snell, “It’s not worth it” to risk injury. And you know what? He’s probably right.
When it comes to racking up wins, these guys aren’t exactly hitting it out of the park either. Neither one of them is anywhere close to winning 20 games this season, and they haven’t even hit the 15-win mark yet. In fact, Snell’s seven no-hit innings didn’t even earn him a victory because the Padres didn’t score until the bottom of the ninth. Talk about bad luck!
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Sure, they lead the league in ERA, but here’s the real kicker – their FIPs (a statistic that only considers strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed) are higher than their ERAs. It seems luck might be playing a bigger role in their success than we initially thought. So maybe they’re not the untouchable gods of pitching after all.
According to the stat gurus at FanGraphs, neither Snell nor Cole should be leading the race for the Cy Young. They rank behind other pitchers like Minnesota’s Sonny Gray, Toronto’s Kevin Gausman, and Tampa Bay’s Zach Eflin in terms of fWAR. I’m not saying fWAR is infallible, but maybe it’s onto something.
Don’t get me wrong, Snell and Cole are undoubtedly talented pitchers. But the game has changed so much that it’s become nearly impossible to compare the quality of starters. Gone are the days when a pitcher would refuse to leave a scoreless game, let alone a no-hitter. Snell knew exactly what he was doing when he made his exit, and he deserves credit for knowing his limits and protecting his body.
So, where does this leave us? In a state of confusion, my friends. We have starting pitchers who throw fewer innings, make fewer starts, and leave games based on pitch counts rather than game situations. It’s becoming increasingly difficult to determine who truly excels at their craft.
Let’s take a closer look at another pair – Snell and Logan Webb. Webb might not be Snell’s biggest competition, but the contrast between them is striking. Webb throws almost a full inning more per start and has a better strikeout-to-walk ratio. He may not have Snell’s glamorous stats, but his control is unmatched. Can we confidently say Snell has pitched better than Webb? It’s a tough call.
The same goes for Cole and Sonny Gray. Cole might have more innings under his belt and a lower WHIP, but Gray avoids home runs like a cat avoids water. In a time when home runs are practically raining down, that’s a big deal. Gray’s FIP aligns almost perfectly with his ERA, while Cole has a half-run gap due to his tendency to give up the long ball.
To be clear, I’m not saying Snell and Cole don’t deserve the Cy Young. They absolutely do. But let’s not forget about the other deserving pitchers who often go unnoticed. It’s becoming an increasingly challenging task to differentiate between them.
As a beauty and fashion expert, I’m used to making bold statements and standing by my opinions. But when it comes to valuing starting pitchers, I must admit, I’m at a loss. The game has changed, and it’s time for us to adapt. So, let’s kick back, enjoy the show, and appreciate the amazing talents of these pitchers, even if we can’t quite figure out who does it best.
Caption: Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres//Getty Images
Caption: Stephen Maturen//Getty Images
Joe Posnanski has been called “contemporary sports writing’s biggest star.” For more stories from Joe, subscribe to his Joe Blogs Substack newsletter at joeposnanski.com, where he writes about sports, pop culture, life, and all manner of nonsense.
